1. DPRK THREATENS TO BOOST NUCLEAR ARSENAL
Reuters, 13 April 2006
North Korea said on Thursday it might boost its nuclear deterrent if
six-country talks on ending its atomic programs remained deadlocked, but
said it would return if Washington met a demand to unfreeze it assets.
Pyongyang's top envoy to the stalled negotiations told a news conference
in Tokyo the United States must lift what the North considers to be financial
sanctions against it.
"I told them the minute we have the funds or I have the funds in
my hand I will be at the talks. But if they continue to come with pressure
and sanctions, we will respond with extremely strong measures," envoy
Kim Kye-gwan said. "There is nothing wrong with delaying the resumption
of the six-party talks. In the meantime we can make more deterrent. If
the United States doesn't like that, they should create the condition
for us to go back to the talks."
In an official media report on Thursday, North Korea reiterated it has
been building a nuclear deterrent to counter what it views as Washington's
hostile policy toward it. Washington has clamped down on a Macau-based
bank it suspects of assisting Pyongyang in illicit financial activities,
including money laundering. Kim has been in Tokyo, where he attended a
security symposium along with most of the other chief delegates to the
six-party talks, including US envoy Christopher Hill. At the airport before
departing, Kim said it was up to the United States to seek bilateral discussions.
"I always have patience," he said.
An analyst in Seoul said Kim's comments might indicate Pyongyang was
fishing for a compromise, where the United States could say not all of
the North's accounts frozen at the Macau bank were used for illicit activity
and then free up some funds.
"Seoul's preference is for the US to find some gesture that will
help North Korea save face. China's position is not all that different,"
said Kim Sung-han, head of North American studies at the Institute of
Foreign Affairs and National Security.
Analysts have said a meeting between the US and Chinese presidents next
week in the United States could also increase the pressure on North Korea
to return to talks. Beijing is urging flexibility on the financial crackdown.
Tokyo says Pyongyang must appreciate that unless the atomic issue and
a separate standoff with Japan over abductees is resolved the North's
already weak economic position would deteriorate further.
Hill, currently in South Korea, said Pyongyang was boycotting the discussions,
but urged patience for the stalled process. Washington says the financial
issue is separate from the nuclear talks and has urged Pyongyang to return
to the talks. Hill said the amount of the frozen Macau funds was about
$20 million, equal to approximately one week's worth of energy aid proposed
by South Korea for the North in return for scrapping its nuclear programs.
"The DPRK needs to understand that as long as it is going to be
producing nuclear weapons, we are going to be having a real close look
at its finances," Hill said, referring to the North's official name,
the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. Hill, who was in Tokyo until
Wednesday, had no substantive discussions with Kim in the Japanese capital,
dimming prospects for renewed progress in the nuclear talks. Hill said
he was ready to meet Kim face-to-face within the six-party format. The
last round of the talks among the two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and
the United States was held in November.
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2. US CONGRESSIONAL AIDES VISIT KAESONG INDUSTRIAL
COMPLEX
Joong Ang Ilbo, 12 April 2006
An eight-member US congressional aide delegation visited an inter-Korean
industrial complex on Tuesday to look at the nature of the economic relationship
between the two Koreas, the South Korean Embassy here said Wednesday.
The delegation, made up of bipartisan, bicameral staff members, has been
in Seoul from Sunday to meet with South Korean government, parliamentary
and economic organization officials to discuss political and trade issues,
the embassy said.
"The two key issues that have been raised during the staff delegation's
extensive meetings include South Korea's efforts to join the Visa Waiver
Program, as well as the US-Korea free trade agreement (FTA)," it
said.
The Kaesong industrial complex, located just north of the heavily fortified
Korean border, is a pilot project that combines the capital of South Korean
companies with the cheap labor force of North Korea to manufacture export
items at competitive prices. The venture has raised some questions in
the United States about the use of sensitive items and technology that
are on Washington's export control list, and more broadly, if such economic
cooperation is in line with international efforts to press North Korea
to give up its nuclear weapons.
It is now viewed in the context of the FTA negotiations, whether products
out of Kaesong can be considered goods produced by South Korea and also
if North Korean workers are being paid and treated according to international
standards.
"According to sources close to the delegation, the trip to the Kaesong
industrial complex was pivotal because members of Congress need to understand
the nature of the economic relationship between the two Koreas, particularly
in light of the launching of negotiations for a US-South Korea free trade
agreement," the embassy said. Doug Anderson, a staff member of the
House International Relations Committee, visited Kaesong last month.
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3. DPRK WEIGHING THE BENEFITS OF THE NUCLEAR
CARD
Stratfor, 13 April 2006
SUMMARY
North Korea's parliament, the Supreme People's Assembly (SPA), met April
11 to discuss government and economic performance for the past year and
the coming year, and to plan out the government's priorities. Though the
SPA is often considered a rubber-stamp parliament, its discussions in
recent years have offered insight into the shape of upcoming North Korean
policies. In the plans for 2006, the emphasis is again on agriculture,
but there also is a clear impetus to accelerate international economic
interactions -- and these could indicate Pyongyang's further intentions
regarding the ongoing nuclear crisis.
ANALYSIS
The fourth session of the 11th Supreme People's Assembly (SPA) of North
Korea met in Pyongyang on April 11 to review the Cabinet's work and the
status of the economy, as well as to discuss plans for 2006 and the role
of technology in North Korea's development. The annual meetings of the
oft-described "rubber-stamp" parliament may not set policies,
but they do provide insight into the most significant issues of interest
to North Korea's leaders.
The underlying theme of the 2006 session was "stepping up the development
of science and technology to give strong impetus to the building of a
great prosperous powerful nation." While this sounds rather grandiose,
it is no coincidence that much of leader Kim Jong Il's January visit to
China focused on technology as the underpinning of economic development,
from the traditional high-tech industries all the way down to core sectors
such as agriculture.
Two key high-tech initiatives were laid out in the SPA session. First
was the "urgent [need] to build a nationwide information network
and develop programming technology rapidly" in order to turn North
Korea "into a power in software development." Pyongyang may
intend to have foreign firms outsource to North Korea, as international
animation studios already do. Second was the call for the establishment
of science and technology hubs that bring together scientists for research,
study and development of new ideas and technologies. These technology
incubators will also try to draw on cooperation with foreign scientists.
As with many developing nations, and particularly with socialist ones,
technology is seen as the path toward greatness. But it also is seen as
a pragmatic necessity to leap over the various stages of development in
order to catch up with the rest of the world.
Although technology got top billing as a theme, the most important tasks
laid out related to agriculture, coal and metals. North Korea has seen
five consecutive years of increased grain output following a terrible
year in 2000, and at the end of 2005 negotiated an end to grain donations
from the World Food Program in favour of assistance in growing its own
foods. The larger crop yields were still insufficient, but the push on
agriculture, which was the main focus of the April 2005 SPA session, apparently
has begun to pay off. In the future, North Korea intends to increase research
and development into bioengineering better crops and into additional fertilizer
production utilizing coal gasification for the feedstock.
Coal takes second billing, but only slightly so. North Korean coal production
continues to climb, and Pyongyang not only uses it at home for energy
but also exports it to China. Although coal remains a primary source of
energy, Pyongyang also continues to expand the development and use of
hydropower. The government also has recognized the critical state of the
energy infrastructure and called for an increased focus on energy management,
the development of renewable energy sources (such as wind and biomass)
and energy-efficient devices, and the use of energy-saving practices.
Given the huge increase in international oil prices, these are even more
critical issues for North Korea than perhaps for its neighbours. Interestingly,
Pyongyang also laid out the need to develop its oil exploration and production
technology, perhaps with an eye on potential resources in the West Sea.
Metal is the final piece of the economic trinity. Pyongyang is looking
to increase metal production, particularly steel, and divert that production
to critical areas such as improving the energy infrastructure and the
rail infrastructure. Both are in a particularly poor state (as the 2004
Ryongchon blast showed), though Pyongyang has over the past few years
increased attention to rail as part of a regional push to connect South
Korea by railroad to Russia and China (and eventually on to Europe), all
via North Korea. In addition, rail remains the most effective way of moving
coal and other energy resources, as well as grain, through the country.
As Pyongyang lays out its 2006 plans, it sees the six-party nuclear talks
languishing, and wonders if they are even necessary anymore. There is
a clear impasse, and Pyongyang increasingly doubts whether Washington
is either willing to make a deal or capable of enforcing any deal that
might be made. Furthermore, South Korea continues to work economically
with the North, and once again, international economic cooperation plays
a prominent role in the SPA plans for the coming year. As such, the need
for a settlement with Washington appears to be waning.
The initial intent of the 2003 nuclear crisis, after all, was to force
a peace settlement with the United States, thus breaking the international
taboo on doing business with North Korea and carefully managing the opening
of special economic zones to take advantage of cheap North Korean labour
-- all while bringing in cash and technology to North Korea to be redistributed
throughout the rest of the country by the central government. If Seoul
continues to work with North Korea in Kaesong and elsewhere, and Pyongyang
wants to retain a close hold over the pace and scope of economic experimentation,
having Seoul on its side even without a peace accord with Washington is
not a bad position.
For Pyongyang, however, there is a question of time. While it sees little
potential progress from Washington any time soon (and is thus refraining
from taking the necessary steps to satisfy Washington and restart the
six-party talks), Pyongyang also sees its rapprochement with South Korea
facing a troubling time as the South's December 2007 presidential election
approaches. Pyongyang foresees the likely return of a more conservative
government in Seoul, one not nearly as open to sharing money and technology
with the North, making 2006 and the first half of 2007 critical years
for North Korean economic developments. A deal with Washington would reduce
the risk of a change in the South Korean government, but it also would
be of questionable value until perhaps after the 2006 US congressional
elections -- but those are well beyond the spring deadline Washington
has laid out for the potential continuation of six-party talks.
The ball is now clearly in North Korea's court. The ability to restart
the six-party talks rests in Pyongyang's willingness, or lack thereof,
to identify its nuclear sites for future dismantling. Pyongyang could
easily accede, submit the sites and restart negotiations. But if it deems
it unlikely that Washington will go so far as to sign a peace accord to
replace the armistice or finally establish formal diplomatic relations,
Pyongyang might look at the cost-vs.-benefit of continued drawn-out talks
over an artificially created crisis and decide simply to focus on its
economic ties with Seoul and a few other select states. It could then
let the nuclear question remain unresolved until there is another opportunity
-- or need -- to play the nuke card.
*************************************************
4. DPRK TO ANNOUNCE REAL ESTATE REFORMS
Donga Ilbo, 13 APRIL 2006
North Korea seems to be preparing for new economic reforms centered on
real estate reform. According to sources knowledgeable to North Korea,
measures that North Korea is about to take contain some dramatic changes,
including leasing out state-owned mountains to individuals on a long-term
basis, and imposing taxes on state-owned land which is used by factories
and businesses. Other measures include granting rights to develop and
operate roads on a long-term basis to local and foreign businesses as
well as individuals, and recognizing ownership of new apartments constructed
and sold by businesses or individuals.
In addition, North Korea is said to be considering a plan to lease out
plots of collective farms to families. The review for the plan was completed
early last year, but it has been put on the shelf for a year due to the
political situation at home and abroad. Sources say that the new measures
will be implemented by the order of the cabinet starting this April. One
source said on yesterday, "For five days starting April 4, the North
Korean authorities held working-level meetings that gathered together
production unit supervisors in major cities around the country and taught
them the new real estate policies."
According to the source, on the first day of the meeting, the participants
were informed that taxes would be imposed on land used by factories and
businesses depending on the size of land occupied. Moreover, it has been
recently confirmed that a new department called the "real estate
development department" was established inside each people's committee,
which is the North Korean equivalent of a local government. What it means
is that real estate, a relatively new concept for North Koreans, has been
first introduced into North Korean governmental agencies.
Yang Mun-soo, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies said,
"In the past also, North Korea had to inevitably lease out state-owned
stores and shops to individuals for national financing. The reform measures
that North Korea is about to embark on seem to be in line with that."
He added, "However, what is notable is that the subjects of lease-out
have been expanded to state-owned land."
North Korea demonstrated its will to restore the socialist system when
it reinstated the rationing system last October. However, there is an
analysis that since the National Defense Committee Chairman Kim Jong Il
made a visit to China last July, North Korea has taken a turn toward reforms
and opening up once again. In particular, this round of reform measures
is expected to further inspire capitalist ways of thinking into North
Korean residents, as the Economic Management Improvement Measure announced
on July 1, 2002, did. Meanwhile, the Financial Times reported on April
9, "North Korea will embark on a new round of economic reform measures
immediately after the birthday of its late leader Kim Il-sung (April 15)."
It said, "The new measures will start quietly."
Kevin Shepherd, a researcher at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies
affiliated to the Kyungnam University, told the Financial Times, "Considering
the recent reports from North Korean state-owned media outlets, North
Korea seems to be preparing to bring about another round of changes to
the North Korean economy." In particular, he brought to the attention
the fact that the North Korean state-owned media outlets recently mentioned
ways to improve labor. According to him, the North Korean state-owned
media outlets said, it is more desirable for wages to be given to workers
on a daily or a weekly basis, rather than on a monthly basis. The Financial
Times also reported that for the first time in 10 years, "the national
labor planning meeting" was held, and North Korean Prime Minister
Pak Pong Ju and a large number of economic officials participated in the
meeting.
The Financial Times forecasted that if North Korea takes on additional
economic reforms, legal changes would take place so that more authority
will be given to supervisors of businesses, and businesses and production
units can attract foreign capital more actively. The Financial Times added,
"The financial sanctions of the United States against North Korea
also seem to have motivated North Korea into taking on economic reforms.
Those who have visited North Korea recently say that it is more difficult
than before to gain hold of foreign currencies in North Korea."
*************************************************
FOCUS:
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5. DPRK POSTS DECREE WITH SEVERE PUNISHMENTS
North Korea Today, Research Institute for the North Korean Society, 13th
Issue, 20 March 2006
The State Department of the US government has published the 'Report on
the Strategies to Control the Illegal Substances' on the March 1st, 2006.
Although there is a disclaimer that more precise evidences are needed,
but the United States government criticised that the enough evidences
show the involvement of the North Korean government. The North Korean
government on the March 7th, 2006 have condemned that this report is part
of the coercive US policy, to conspire defamation and pressure against
North Korea. In addition, the ship crew of the 'Bongsooho' was held in
prison for accusation on smuggling heroin to Australia in 2003. The entire
crew were found innocent from the trial that went on for two years and
ten months, thus, this has put a break on the coercive US policy towards
North Korea from laying allegations on counterfeiting notes to drug issues.
Meanwhile, the North Korean government has released a decree on the March
1st, 2006 before the US State Department released the annual report on
the Strategies to Control the Illegal Substances'. The decree outlines
anyone who gets involved in slashing electrical lines or telecommunication
lines or any involvement in producing, dealing with drugs will be sentenced
with severe punishments. This is an indirect acknowledgement from the
North Korean Government that the drug is being a serious social problem
despite the determination of the government.
The confrontation of the US versus North Korea is apparent with series
of issues such as human rights violation, counterfeiting on notes and
drugs while the Six Party Talks seem to be in a slump. The reconciliation
between the US and the North Korea is still seemed have lost its way in
the midst of the mistrust between the two states.
*************************************************
6. DECREE ON SLASHING POWER LINES, DRUG TRANSACTIONS
National Police Agency of DPRK, 1 March 2006
Slashing electric power or communication lines and illegal drug transactions
are anti-state crimes impeding our economic development and national defence
that paralyzes our people's revolutionary consciousness and demolishing
our whole-hearted solidarity on political ideology of the leaders of the
revolution.
National Police Agency, therefore, decrees as follow on behalf of the
Government of Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
1. Do not Slash nor Destroy Electric Power or Tele-Communication Lines.
-- Do not commit any acts of cutting or stealing the power and communication
lines.
-- Do not get involved in any acts of buying and selling of copper, especially
to other countries.
-- Institutions, businesses, organizations, and citizen are forbidden
to use copper to manufacture various products to sell.
-- Electrical and telecommunication workers shall not violate the management,
supervision and guarding regulation regarding the electrical and telecommunication
equipments.
2. Illegal Transactions of Drugs Ought Not to be Engaged.
-- Do not sell, buy nor use drugs illegally.
-- Do not cultivate raw materials nor manufacture drugs illegally.
-- Institutions, workplaces and organisations should not illegally produce
nor export drug.
-- Institutions, workplaces and organisations should not offend the storages,
handlings and usage order of drugs.
3. Watch out for any illegal activities on slashing electric and telecommunication
lines or drug transactions, and report it to the police authorities immediately.
-- Do not delay nor hinder from informing, nor take revenge on informers.
4. Those who have engaged in slashing electric and telecommunication
lines and illegal drug transactions should voluntarily surrender themselves
to the police.
-- Those who surrender within 10 days after this decree shall be generously
forgiven.
5. Offenders of this decree shall be sentenced to death regardless of
their status, services and achievements.
-- Anyone who organised or initiated activities that offend this decree
shall be sentenced to heavy penalty up to death, and their family shall
be expelled.
-- Anyone who conspire or support the activities that offend shall also
be sentenced to heavy penalty.
-- Supervisors and Guardians of the institutions, workplaces and organisations
that the offender of this decree is belonging to shall take due responsibilities
for the act committed.
-- Transportations, equipments, money and materials used for the activities
offending this decree shall be confiscated in all circumstances irrespective
of their positions.
-- Anyone who hinders or resist execution of this decree shall be arrest
in the act.
6. This decree shall be adopted in all institutions, workplaces, organizations
(including military and special institutions) and people, in the lawful
territory of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
*************************************************
7. EXPULSION OF 15 DRUG DEALERS' FAMILIES
IN HOERYONG
North Korea Today, Research Institute for the North Korean Society, 14th
Issue, 20 March 2006
The residents of Hoeryung had a general assembly at the Tangang Machenary
Factory on the March 14, 2006. The agenda was on the expulsion of the
individuals and their families who dealt (bought, used or sold) with drug
called 'er-reum (a kind of amphatamine -- also known as "speed").
As a result from the general assembly, 15 households including the individuals
and family who dealt with drugs and gambling were expelled from the city.
Residents are living in insecurity and fear unknowing who will be arrested
and expelled the next.
*************************************************
8. PUBLIC EXECUTION OF DRUG DEALERS AT CHONGJIN
North Korea Today, Research Institute for the North Korean Society, 14th
Issue, 20 March 2006
On March 30, 2006, there was a public execution for two people on the
bank of the Soo-sung-chun creek near Soonam District Marketplace. According
to the decree that was posted on March 1, 2006 about the offenders slashing
electrical and tele-communication lines, any one who deal drugs will be
laid heavy punishment regardless of their position, achievements and statues.
It then specifically mentions the punishment is up to death penalty and
the rest of the family will be expelled from the town. The decree also
mentions those who come forward and self-report their offence to the authority
before the March 10, 2006 will be graciously forgiven.
The two men who had public execution, were arrested before the posting
of the decree and the public execution was held as a model case. The one
of the offenders was guilty of drug smuggling and another was found guilty
of showing forbidden films.
*************************************************
9. TEENAGER EXECUTED FOR IMITATING ROK FILM
GANGSTER
North Korea Today, Research Institute for the North Korean Society, 14th
Issue, 20 March 2006
In early March, Song, a 6th grade high school student in Chongjin city,
was executed by shooting. After seeing a South Korean movie about mobsters,
Song formed an organization with other secondary grade students from Pohang
and Soonam regions. They would gather, call in other female students and
drink and watch movies.
They killed traitors who leaked their secrets out or those who have abandoned
their group. The followers of Song who tattooed themselves 'Song's Special
Guard' on their wrist were also apprehended. Song, found guilty on charges
of murder and acts of violence, received the maximum penalty of death
and other teenagers were sent to the Hoeryung Junguri Re-Education Centre.
Their behaviour is considered more than simple acts of imitation by teenagers,
were deemed anti-regime as they imitated 'The Great Leader's Special Guards'
and severe punishments were given accordingly.
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QUIDNUNC
In this section of CanKor, we invite readers to send questions, answers,
or responses. Answers should be under 150 words and may be edited for
space.
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HAS THE SIX-PARTY TALKS PROCESS RUN ITS COURSE?
*************************************************
The Six Party Talks are intended to lead to the DPRK regime providing
verifiable evidence that it poses no nuclear threat to the USA, China,
Russia, Japan and the ROK. Once it is ensured that the DPRK has no capacity
to explode a nuclear bomb, presumably the next step would be to induce
the DPRK to come into compliance with other international norms. The domestic
institutional changes necessary to come into compliance would threaten
the existing political status quo in North Korea. So the DPRK does not
find it in its interest to initiate such a process by ceasing to project
a perception that it poses a nuclear threat to neighbouring countries.
So the Talks make no substantive progress. Mostly they seem to wile away
the months and years in negotiations about the process. In the long term
this could end up badly.
Charles Burton, Professor, Brock University, St. Catherines, Ontario,
Canada
*************************************************
WHAT IS THE DPRK'S MOST URGENT NEED?
*************************************************
The DPRK's most urgent need is a change of government.
Aidan Foster-Carter, Honorary Senior Research Fellow in Sociology &
Modern Korea, Leeds University, UK
*************************************************
As the birthday of Kim Il Sung nears, it seems right to ask what the
Democratic Republic of Korea's greatest need might be. As someone from
a wealthy country, and as a Canadian whose Government is cool to the DPR
of Korea, perhaps the question could be reversed. I would like to ask
what Canada's greatest needs are regarding that sovereign state. One question
might be what Canada could do to reduce tension in the Korean Peninsula.
Our posture at present is to view the DPRK as a possible threat. We take
our cues from the Americans, and as long as we do, we will see the DPRK
as an adversarial nation. While our influence in that region is small
at best, Canada could use its reasonably good reputation to leverage changes
more widely. Often, a warm gesture invites a warm response. What keeps
us from giving unconditional gestures is the human rights issue. We hang
it like a curtain to block out the sun.
Before our Government can dialogue with the Government of the DPRK on
substantive issues, we must find low-level ways to communicate with them.
Having worked with academics in Pyongyang for 3 months, I was impressed
at the openness with which I was able to work with them. I walked about
the entire city without restriction. I was received kindly by academic
institutions. Canada has an opportunity to engage Korean academics by
offering them opportunities to study in Canadian universities. Methods
to improve Korea's food security issue is a priority. Korea needs to develop
ways to multiply its imported food products through secondary manufacturing.
We can send wheat to the DPRK, but the multiplier effects are not present.
Wheat can be integrated and transformed into other forms of food. Let's
work at exchanges to make it happen. With grants from the Canadian International
Development Agency and IDRC, such exchanges and expertise could be developed.
In the meantime, while Korea, with its high literacy rate, could benefit
from exchanges to promote communication technology, improve transportation,
sustainable mineral development, and address good governance issues.
In turn, we Canadians have a lot to learn. We cannot assume this is a
one way street. Exchanges create opportunities for us to see what it has
been like for Koreans to live in fear of attack -- real and imagined --
from neighbors near and far away. When you talk with someone with a pencil
or textbook or computer in hand, and the one you are talking to has a
book and a calculator in his hand, there is less chance that you are going
to be shooting at each other. Academic exchanges are Canada's greatest
need at the moment as a way to facilitate understanding with the DPR of
Korea. We could be a leader.
Jake Buhler, Saskatoon, SK, Canada
*************************************************
WHAT NOW?
How many people in North Korea have unfettered access to information about
the world outside the DPRK?
(Jeff Nankivell, CIDA, Ottawa & Charles Burton, Brock University,
St. Catherines, Ontario, Canada)
[Answers should be e-mailed to: editor@CanKor.ca]
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